How PM Takaichi Could Reshape Japan’s Foreign Policy: Security, China, and Economic Diplomacy

Understanding Japan’s First Female Leader’s Vision on Security, China, and the Global Economy

■ Background: Rising Tensions and Japan’s New Leadership

Amid a rapidly changing Indo-Pacific landscape, Japan has just selected its next leader. Sanae Takaichi, following a decisive victory in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership election on October 4, is set to become Japan’s first female prime minister.

Her ascension comes at a time of mounting challenges—China’s military expansion, regional volatility over Taiwan, North Korea’s missile developments, Russia’s aggression, and the evolving U.S.-Japan alliance all loom large.

Takaichi is a veteran conservative known for her hawkish stances on security and her emphasis on “economic security.” During the leadership campaign, she called for “crisis management investment,” technology protection, and a proactive foreign policy built around Japan’s national interest. This article examines how her stated views and policy direction might translate into diplomatic action.

■ 1. U.S.-Japan Alliance: The Foundation of Her Strategy

Takaichi has firmly stated that the U.S.-Japan alliance will remain the bedrock of her foreign policy. However, unlike some past administrations that focused on symbolic alignment, she appears intent on deepening joint operational capacity—enhancing Japan’s defense capabilities and pushing for greater strategic integration.

This includes boosting defense spending, acquiring counterstrike capabilities, and facilitating U.S.-Japan joint operations in the event of a regional crisis, particularly concerning Taiwan.

■ 2. Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP): Strategic Continuity

Like her predecessors, Takaichi supports Japan’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) vision. This involves maintaining a rules-based order, securing sea lanes, and strengthening ties with democratic partners such as the United States, India, Australia, and ASEAN nations.

While the FOIP concept is not new, Takaichi’s rhetoric suggests a more assertive posture—less focused on quiet diplomacy, more on strategic deterrence and capacity-building with regional allies.

■ 3. China: Engagement with Eyes Wide Open

Takaichi has emphasized the importance of “frank dialogue” with China, yet she makes clear she does not view Beijing as a benign actor. Her concerns over Chinese military activities, cyberattacks, and influence operations have been repeatedly expressed.

She is also expected to strengthen Japan’s commitment to Taiwan. During the campaign, she referred to Taiwan as “a partner that shares values with Japan,” and stressed the need to preserve peace in the Taiwan Strait. Her administration is likely to tread carefully—but firmly—when it comes to balancing dialogue with deterrence.

■ 4. Economic Security: Linking Diplomacy with Industrial Strategy

One of Takaichi’s signature proposals is “crisis management investment”, aimed at bolstering domestic capabilities in areas like semiconductors, AI, defense technology, and bio-manufacturing.

This goes hand-in-hand with diplomatic efforts to diversify supply chains and work with like-minded countries on technology standards, export controls, and infrastructure investment. Takaichi also supports tighter foreign investment screening, particularly in critical industries—signaling a protectionist edge to her economic diplomacy.

■ 5. Regional Diplomacy: Korea, Russia, and the Realities of History

Relations with South Korea and Russia remain delicate. Takaichi has taken a firm stance on historical and territorial issues, suggesting little immediate appetite for major compromise. However, as prime minister, she may adopt a more nuanced tone—balancing principle with pragmatism.

She has previously visited Yasukuni Shrine, a source of diplomatic friction, but recently signaled she may “act with sensitivity” given her leadership position. This suggests she understands the risks of fueling regional tension—especially when stability is vital.

■ 6. Assessment: Takaichi’s Foreign Policy Balancing Act

Takaichi’s approach can be characterized as national-interest-driven realism. She intends to reinforce alliances, expand economic safeguards, and assert Japan’s place in global affairs—not as a passive partner, but as a regional anchor.

That said, her assertive language could raise concerns abroad, especially if not paired with clear diplomatic engagement and coalition-building. Critics will watch how she balances Japan’s role as a proactive security player with its legacy as a peaceful, consensus-driven nation.

In the coming months, key signals will include:

• Her choice of foreign minister
• The country she visits first as prime minister
• How she positions Japan at upcoming summits (G7, APEC, etc.)
• Her approach to Taiwan and regional defense cooperation

■ Summary

Sanae Takaichi is poised to reshape Japan’s foreign policy with a focus on deterrence, tech diplomacy, and regional resilience. The world will be watching whether she can deliver on these ambitions—without overstepping the fine line between strength and escalation.

■ References

• Takaichi wins LDP leadership vote; likely to become Japan’s first female PM (AP News)
• Inspired by Thatcher, Japan’s PM in waiting Takaichi smashes glass ceiling (Reuters)
• Takaichi proposes “crisis management spending” to bolster Japan’s security (Reuters)
• Takaichi pledges frank dialogue with China amid tensions (Asahi Shimbun summary)
• 高市早苗總裁選勝出 日本或迎來首位女首相 (CNA)